Russia - Ukraine war: how will it end? (Part 1)
As experts continue to make their predictions, we review different scenarios how the conflict can end
Introduction
For over a year now, the devastating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued to rage on. Despite numerous discussions and efforts aimed at reaching a peaceful resolution, both sides remain entrenched in their positions, causing untold human suffering and economic hardship. As this ongoing crisis shows no signs of abating, experts have been left pondering when and how it will finally come to an end. However, given the various interests and biases at play, it's crucial to examine the different viewpoints surrounding this complex issue. In this article, we delve into the most common perspectives on the matter to gain a deeper understanding of this ongoing conflict. We will split the article into two parts to cover all the most likely scenarios.
Points of view
Military victory of Ukraine
Military victory of Russia
Further escalation with the direct involvement of new parties
Long term war
Frozen conflict
Peace treaty
Military victory of Ukraine
One point of view is that Ukraine will achieve a military victory. Supporters of this view point to Ukraine's success at the end of 2022 in regaining control over territories in Kherson and Kharkiv. With the introduction of new military support, including tanks and heavy weapons, as well as a new round of mobilization, supporters of Ukraine's military victory believe they can push Russian forces out of the country.
Ukrainian President Zelensky, on the eve of the anniversary of Russia's invasion, affirmed his country's resilience: "We have not broken down, we have overcome many ordeals, and we will win. We will hold to account all those who brought this evil, this war to our land." The Kherson and Kharkiv counter-offensive launched by Ukraine at the end of 2022 was seen as a positive sign by its allies. Ukraine applied new tactics to achieve that success and now they see opportunities to continue this success in the remaining territories controlled by Russia. The official authorities say that the new round of counter-offence is about to get started.
Although Russian authorities said that they prepare for the counter-offence, some experts look to the scenario where Ukraine passes through Russia's defensive lines and get all the territories back to end the war. The anticipated strategy is to try to break the road and rail corridor linking Russia proper to occupied Crimea.
NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg expects Melitopol to become the key battleground in the coming months, with Ukrainian forces taking over the city before moving on to the Azov Sea, effectively cutting off supply and communication lines to Crimea. Russian capitulation will be formally agreed upon at technical talks after devastating Ukrainian advances on the battleground.
To prepare for the new counter-offensive, Ukraine launched a new round of mobilization, secured additional military support and weapons, and sent their troops abroad to train. The latest military support includes more modern tanks and a variety of military machines. With the new heavy weapons and trained troops, Ukraine expects to continue its counter-offensive and recapture territories.
However, most of the experts believe that if Ukraine is to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking.
An alternative scenario for Ukraine's victory could come from a change in authority in Russia. Putin finds himself in a challenging position - many people feel the effects of sanctions, and some are being mobilized to join the war. If the mobilization continues and more families are affected, people may start to show their opposition. However, experts conclude that the president's grip on the Kremlin and the country remains strong so far.
Military victory of Russia
Advocates of this viewpoint anticipate Russia achieving their objectives in Ukraine - capturing some territories and ending the ongoing conflict. Some believe that Russia's military capabilities and performance will be improved to achieve their goals, while others anticipate that the allies will halt or decrease their military and financial support for Ukraine, thereby changing the power balance.
The first aspect of this point of view is Russia's objectives. Putin, in one of his recent speeches, asserted that the "special military operation's" objectives would be accomplished. He emphasized that everything is going according to plan and that the objectives will be achieved, albeit over time. Nonetheless, experts have different interpretations of the objectives. In his initial announcement, Putin referred to the "liberation" of Donbas and Lugansk republics as the objectives. Currently, Russia controls the majority of these two republics. Subsequently, after the referendums initiated by Russia, the objectives were expanded to include the Zaporozhie and Kherson regions. Throughout the conflict, some experts argue that the objectives have shifted, with attempts to capture parts of the Kharkiv and Suma regions. They also believe that Russia's objectives will depend on what it deems achievable. Consequently, the objectives that Russia will consider sufficient to end the conflict are still negotiable.
The second aspect of view point of view is the means by which Russia can achieve its objectives. Ukrainian experts fear that Russia will attempt to encircle the Donbas region and sever the supply lines of Ukrainian forces to capture the territories it claims as its own. This strategy was recently employed in Bakhmut. At this stage, Russia could call for a ceasefire to maintain its gains and conduct a defensive campaign to consolidate its battered military. However, it is unlikely that Russia would launch a significant offensive far westward, given the slow progress to date. One argument supporting this outcome is that Russia mobilized 300,000 personnel at the end of 2022, who are expected to arrive on the battlefield after completing their training. This will increase the number of troops available for offensive operations. If necessary, another mobilization can be announced later in the year. Recently, a new law has been proposed tightening military conscription, signaling the potential for additional mobilizations. Russia's overall ability to mobilize people is greater, which could be a crucial factor at some point. Additionally, Russia's increased production of weapons will enable it to equip its newly recruited forces. Furthermore, the potential support from China can aid Russia in achieving its goals. US officials have suggested that China may begin supplying Russia with weapons, alleviating some supply difficulties.
Alternatively, it is also possible that change in the power balance will come from Ukraine's lack of resources. The US presidential election and the potential presidency of Trump could alter the conflict's dynamics. Trump has stated several times that he would consider halting support for Ukraine to concentrate on internal issues. Some experts have drawn comparisons to Afghanistan, where the suspension of military and financial support resulted in the Taliban's capture of the entire country after years of conflict.
Further escalation with the direct involvement of new parties
Another perspective on how the situation might evolve is the further escalation with the direct involvement of new parties. This involves the potential escalation to the use of nuclear weapons or NATO involvement. While this scenario is not currently probable, some experts warn that without proactive attempts to resolve the conflict, the likelihood of such an outcome may increase.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly made nuclear threats and stated in September that such threats were not a bluff. However, Western countries and experts remain divided on how seriously to take these threats. There are significant risks involved in using nuclear weapons, particularly if Putin were to detonate them in territories he claims are Russian. Fallout on Russian territory would also be a concern due to proximity. The potential benefits of using nuclear weapons in the event of a full-scale military rout are likely outweighed by the risks.
Furthermore, Putin's recent announcement of Russia's suspension of participation in a key nuclear disarmament treaty has raised further concern. Henry Kissinger has warned that a complete breakdown with Russia could unleash nuclear chaos and has urged parties to continue talks. Recently, Russia confirmed that it would locate additional nuclear weapons in Belarus, further exacerbating tensions.
The potential use of nuclear weapons could also trigger NATO involvement, particularly if Russia were to attack an alliance member. While NATO has officially stated that it will not directly engage in the conflict as Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, the accidental or intentional attack on a member nation could change this stance. An incident last year, in which a missile fell on Polish territory, initially believed to be Russian, but later confirmed to be Ukrainian, prompted speculation about NATO involvement in the conflict.
The fragility of the existing situation highlights the need to consider potential scenarios of larger conflict, particularly those involving nuclear weapons or NATO involvement. It is essential that all parties engage in proactive and constructive dialogue to find a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict.
In the next article we will look at the remaining three scenarios:
Long term war
Frozen conflict
Peace treaty